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Flash Games Are Best?

I am beginning to think that Flash games are going to be a great place for Indie developers to find a huge audience and make a living. In fact, I have been giving a game design presentation called Games for the Non-Hardcore, in which I outline a lot of facts about Flash and why it is a great platform for gaming and developers. I will be turning that presentation into blog posts in the near future, but in the meantime, I could not resist putting up this comic from xkcd.
Flash Games Are Best
What this depicts is just one a many, many reasons Flash could be in your future.

-Jeff Tunnell, Game Maker
Make It Big In Games

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How Much Money Can Your XBox360 Live Arcade Game Make?

This 2006 archive article helps answer a question that many people still ask today.

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XNA Game Studio Express Doubters Get It Wrong

I don’t really have the time to comment on some of the rants about the Microsoft XNA Game Studio PC and XBox360 games tools initiative, but it cuts so close to home for GarageGames that I have to. Certain perspectives are so skewed and wrong that the only conclusion that I can come to is that they are either trying to get a little more famous for having another rant or they are truly threatened by opening up game development to indies, hobbyists, casual developers, or anybody that would like to experience creating a game for a console.

TrashTalk

In spite of the rants, the combination of a managed code development environment that is free on the PC and $100 per year to access the XB360 is revolutionary. Add in the low cost of Torque X, a full C# game engine, and anybody that mows lawns or gets an allowance will be able buy one and make games for a next generation console. Having a unified development platform on managed code will allow many more people to learn game development methodologies. It is a nice step toward making game development easier. Personally, I am not threatened by having many more people making games. I welcome it and look forward to seeing the kind of vibrant and creative community we see from Flash developers.

People want to make games for consoles. It is a unified hardware platform, it is cheap, and their friends have one. Hobbyists will do it just for fun, educators will use it to teach game making, and even experienced developers will flock to this system just for prototyping. Any time in past history, prototyping your game on a console was “unobtanium”. Even if you could get approved, the cost of a development kit was out of range, so only large publishers could get access.

Imagine this scenario. An Indie developer, “Trying Really Hard“, spends two years of their life energy, using all of their spare time making a game, call it “My First Indie Game“, for lack of a better name. They sign it up for on-line distribution, and it quickly goes to the top of the charts. Not being a game that is appropriate for the casual portals, a hit game on the appropriate channels may sell 200 units a month (OK, I’m being generous). Some quick math. $20 retail – credit card fees – download fees = $19 (again, being generous). 50% of $19 is $9.50 * 200 units = $1,900 per month is the cut that TRH gets.

Even though TRH knew it was going to be hard to make a living as an Indie game maker and knew they would have to build a portfolio of products to make a living, this is tough. Hmmm. What to do? They can decide to wait for promises of raising venture capital for portals to build bigger markets, but that might not be in their best interests. Maybe exploring other markets would be appropriate.

So, they decide they would like to leverage their intellectual property and attempt to bring FIRST to the console market. Here is where it gets good, and is the part many people don’t seem to understand. TRH spends no money and downloads XNA Game Studio Express for the PC. Next they decide to spend a small amount for Torque X (GG have not decided how much yet, but it will be inexpensive) to save time rolling their own engine. Now, without even buying the $99 per year Creator Club subscription, TRH is creating a nice demo of their game that accesses shaders, game controller, etc. Development is going extremely quickly because of the managed code environment. Once the game is done, it is good enough they decide to pay up $99 for the Creator’s Club and actually demo the game on an XB360.

The next step is to either present the game directly to Microsoft or to one of the many, many publishers that are actively seeking content for the XBLA download channel (all of these publishers are easily accessible, and even Microsoft is incredibly accessible when it comes to XBLA for the XB360). Because the publisher gets to play the game directly on the XB360, there is little left to the imagination. All of the development risk for the title is gone. The publisher can easily do the ROI calculations, and it makes negotiations for TRH much easier, allowing them to keep ownership of the FIRST intellectual property as well as get a higher royalty rate and advance. At that point, they upgrade their Game Studio Express IDE to the professional version or negotiate with the publisher to loan them a full XB360 development kit or use some of their advances to actually buy their own development tools. In a few short months, they have made more money than they will EVER make on PC download channels. In addition, getting FIRST published on XBLA raised the profile of TRH and gets them offers to make games for the Wii, PS3 downloadable channel, DS, and other newly emerging platforms. How can that be bad???

GarageGames was founded seven years ago on the premise that tools and technology as well as distribution needed to be democratized for Indies to be able to be successful. We have done a great job on the tools side of the equation, but building up huge sales directly to the player has been harder, and we realize it will take a long time. With that in mind, we have advocated for Indies everywhere. We have worked hard to open new channels of distribution, to explore any and all channels and opportunities that we can find. Sometimes these things have seemed a little silly, Phantom anyone?, sometimes they are middle of the road (coin op), sometimes they are absolute hits. Helping pioneer channels such as XBLA on the original XBox or be first in line to get good products and technologies on XBLA for XB360, is good… no make that great, for Indies!

To wrap this up, I would ask people to really do their homework before coming to a conclusion on Microsoft’s XNA intitiative. Look at people that have a track record of shipping a lot of games and starting successful companies instead of ranting voices in the wilderness that make no sense.

-Jeff Tunnell, Game Maker ::: Make It Big In Games ::: GarageGames

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How Much Money Can Indie Games Make, Part I

How much money is in Indie Games?

This is definitely a popular question. Here are two typical emails that I have modified and paraphrased a little to protect the innocent (please note that I did not change the grammar or spelling):

From the obvious newbie:

Recently ,my friends and I are interested in Indie game development, we want to make our own game .We have many questions about Indie games.Could you please give us some suggestions?
What shall we do at the begining? How many copies could sell on the average.
Thanks a lot.

From the professional game developer:

I don’t want to waste your time, so I’m going to keep this simple and to the point.

A programmer friend and I have been in professional game developers for 8 years now, and are beginning to research how to go indie.

What we have been trying to figure out is what the ‘general numbers’ are for average independent titles. Basic questions like: What are good sales? What can you expect to gross per copy? How long is the typical title in development? What is the ‘breaking point’ for download size? What genres are most popular? These are just a few of many, and I know there are issues we haven’t even dreamed of at this point.

We’ve speculated on what amount of venture capital we would need to develop a basic title, but it’s just that – speculation. We are both have families and homes, so we’re being very careful about out assumptions and research.

While these emails obviously have different levels of professionalism and presentation, they both ask basically the same question, i.e. what game should I make and how much money will it make? These are both big subjects, and since this post is about how much money Indie Games make, the other question(s) will be addressed in later articles.

So, quit stalling and get around to it. HOW MUCH MONEY CAN MY INDIE GAME MAKE?

OK, You’re not going to like it…

42

Huh?

42 is “The Ultimate answer to Life, the Universe and Everything” according to Douglas Adams in Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, so it must be a good enough answer to such a vague question.

Another glib answer is, how good is your game?

Now we are honing in on the answer, and the problem with giving “average” answers. If you want the average, then the answer has to be…

ZERO.

Yep, zero, zip, nada, as in Zero Dollars, Euros, Yen, or whatever your national currency happens to be.

Not to discourage wanna-be game developers, but the average for the first question posted in this article will definitely be zero. In fact, it will be less than zero, because I can almost assure you the game will never be completed. Selling something means you are a professional and you need to make products good enough to sell. In order to get good enough, you will need to practice, make a bunch of throw away games, get to know your team mates, make some more games, give them away for free, watch people play them, learn what you did wrong, roll it into your next game, then another, and finally you may have enough experience that people will want to pay you for your creations.

Now that you have reached the point described in the above paragraph, you are more in the same boat as the second email question posted in this article, and we can start talking about success strategies, and how much money an Indie game can make.

For this exercise, we’ll use the Casual Games market because it is accessible by Indies, and it currently a hot enough market that money can actually be made here. Keep in mind that urban legend has it that the casual games market is dominated by 41 year old females, so it might not be your cup of tea. However, other Indie games markets are not as established, so it is harder to find sales data.

Let’s start at the top, since that is the easiest place to find data. Go to Game Sales Charts to find out actual sales data from Real Arcade, one of the largest on-line game sales portals. (another good thing about Real is that they are a public company, so they frequently give actual sales numbers for the entire portal, so you can make assumptions about the total size of the casual game market. Phil Steinmeyer has recently taken a good shot at doing just this, check it out).

I’ll let you do the math, but now you can find out the annual sales of Real by looking in their 10Q, figure the average weekly sales of Real’s portal, then make your own assumptions about how much of that revenue the number one game would get. Now apply those percentages to the number of weeks a game appears in any of the top tracked spots. This will give you a good approximation of how much your top selling game on the Real portal makes.

Now you can go back to Phil Steinmeyer’s site and apply the market share numbers for each of the portals, and decide how much more your game could make by being in wide distribution. Remember, that independently developed games will usually end up on all of the popular portals.

Like I said, I’ll let you do the math, but, in general, we expect the top selling games in the casual space to make anywhere from $1.5MM- $7MM in a year. WOW!! That is huge cash! But, there are some catches.

I’ll have an entire article on royalties, net payments, etc., but for now just assume your company will get 30% of that money. OK, that is still a WOW! Or, maybe a not bad, I can live with that.

I said the top selling games. Look at the Real sales charts and see how many games would actually hit the top. There are a HUGE number of games chasing those top spots. Big Fish Games alone published 365 games last year. Also, take into account the fact that many of the portals are starting to create their own content for all of the top promotion, marketing, and sales on their sites, and it gets even harder.

That said, if you do create a hot property, there will be bidding for your game. In fact, right now, the market it hot enough, if you make a couple of great games in a row, you will probably be getting offers to buy your company.

A bright side to consider is that additional markets are becoming very real for the top developers. I have already covered the XBox360 Live Arcade download market, and the cell phone marketplace is really becoming hot as well.

To summarize, if you are a great game developer there are huge opportunities in the Indie space right now.

Next time, I’ll cover more of the middle part of the market, i.e. what you can expect if you are not at the top of the charts.

-Jeff Tunnell, Game MakerMake It Big In GamesGarageGames

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Grand Theft Ping Pong?

I don’t care who you are this is funny!

There’s bleeding in the streets. Electronic Arts is laying people off. Activision lays off 7% of it’s workforce. Atari is on it’s last legs, taking Infogrames down with it. Lionhead lays off 20% of its workforce. PC sales are down 14% in 2005. Etc., etc.

How does Rockstar handle it?

PING PONG…

Ping Pong Paddle

Oh, but it is next generation. This cracks me up.

These are the same guys that publish Grand Theft Auto, Midnight Club, Max Payne, Smuggler’s Run, Manhunt, and Red Dead Revolver. I wouldn’t even pay attention to this, but it seems to me that just a few years ago, when they were riding high on GTA, they were spouting all this crap about how nobody in the game business had a clue, and how they were going to change the game industry with adult titles, real stories, sex, and violence. And now, after all the failures and crapola maybe they can save their company with Ping Pong?

Oh yeah, the best part is that their parent company, Take Two Interactive, is rumored to be on the sales block. Hmmm. I have some free advice for anyone out there. Don’t buy the stock.

Why did I write about this in a blog about how to make a living making Indie Games?

Because it is just so damn cool to not have to worry about Wall Street, sequels, industry upturns/downturns, sex, violence, or “transition years.”

-Jeff Tunnell, Game MakerMake It Big In GamesGarageGames

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XBox360 Live Arcade Opportunities Get Competitive In A Hurry!

XB360logoA mere 16 days ago I was waxing poetic about the opportunities for Indie game developers in the XBox360 Live Arcade download space. Community response to that article has been huge to say the least, with coverage from A-list blogs such as Major Nelson, and XBox Circle. For a while my traffic to MBG was about 25% of what GarageGames normally gets, which is huge for a new blog. While I do believe that this is still a huge opportunity for Indies, I don’t think many people read my statement about how hard this will be. To reiterate:

On the flip side, the competition for this channel will go up in a hurry. All of the major game publishers are starting up games for XBLA. A year from now, there will be well over 100 games vying for player’s attention.

Well, that was a prophetic statement, and the success of the channel is catching the eye of everybody, from the major publishers, to the major developers, to ex-publisher employees, to experienced Indies, to wanna-be Indies. They are all self-funding. All they want are development kits, and pre-approved slots. In other words, hundreds of titles will be vying for limited “shelf space.” Even though this is a download environment, there are only so many titles that can fit into the system the way the UI is designed in the XBLA “store”. Even if there was unlimited shelf space, there are a finite number of downloadable demos that a gamer can digest.

If everybody jumps in the pool at once, all of the water will splash out! But, since it looks like the stampede has begun, what can you do to get in on the gold rush?

First of all, be realistic. If you have never created a game, or have only created a small Flash game, or maybe a cell phone game, you are going to be out of your league. Sorry to say this, but you just won’t have the chops yet. This is the pros, guys. As an example, I’m watching the Winter Olympics as I write this blog. If you just started skating last year, you do not stand a chance of getting on center stage ice any time soon. You might be talented, naturally gifted, and have an incredible amount of promise, but you will need a HUGE amount of practice, coaching, investment, and sacrifice before you even have the ability to get a chance at the qualifiers. This is no different. Making games is HARD work, and the more you do it, the better you get.

If you do have talent and experience, then you probably don’t need much advice from me, but I’ll give it to you anyway. Depending upon your past track record, you are going to need to need to have something special to even get a development kit and approval slot. There is a huge amount of talent coming at this channel. Everybody wants to get back to “pure” games, and have fun again. They can see a place where the best selling games don’t have huge licenses, and all of the attendant BS that is going on in the box channel right now. Unfortunately, most of this same BS will come to this channel soon.

For instance, I can imagine publishers easily making the choice to use XBLA as a loss leader in order to establish a presence and branding now before the channel becomes over developed. Or I could imagine them using the channel as what my partner Jay Moore would call “self liquidating marketing”, i.e. overspend on a product that could just break even in order to support and market a box channel game. My own speculation is that development budgets for XBLA games are already eclipsing $300,000, and will very quickly climb to over $1,000,000. While this is a huge amount for Indie companies self funding their games, it is coffee money for the big publishers compared to the amount they spend for development and marketing of even a C-level box title.

This is probably a huge let down to many of you reading this article, but I don’t think you should let it bother you. Just make your games. Nobody is holding you back from making and releasing games on the PC and Mac, and there is a proven market there. You need to get better… a lot better. Practice your craft and make fun, innovative games. Don’t keep waiting around for the next big “bling” feature until you make your game. If you can’t make a fun game now, waiting for the uber physics engine or HDR rendering is not going to help you tomorrow (this is fodder for an entire article).

If you are experienced, then you already know that ideas are worthless and demos or nearly completed products are everything. Carrying your million dollar idea around in your head will get you nowhere. The only way you are going to get mind share is to have something to show Microsoft or a third party publisher in order to get your slot and development kits.

Get a game engine. Get a hot PC with a hot video card. Attach XB360 controllers. Make your game. Watch people play it. Make it better. Watch them play more. Make it better again. Don’t let the competition get you down. If it is a fun, innovative game, it will sell. It will rise above the competition, and it will make it to any channel you want. In fact, I can tell you that if you make a great game, there will be bidding wars to sign your game and your company.

-Jeff Tunnell, Game MakerMake It Big In GamesGarageGames

Aside

Five Reasons Shipping Marble Blast Ultra on XBox360 Is Important For Indie Game Developers, Part II

Publishers and manufacturers are starting to realize that Indie Game Developers are a legitimate part of the business. For more background, Part One of this article is located here.

MBU Screen Shot

As a continued part of our amazement in partnering with Microsoft on the Marble Blast Ultra project for the XBox360, we ended up with the North American launch of the entire platform at our own little IndieGamesCon. A day after the European launch in Amsterdam, much of the Microsoft launch team were on red-eye flights here to Eugene, OR, USA. For the next three days, we had the world’s largest collection of XBox360′s in front of most of the US gaming press as well as 200 indie game developers.

While Mark Frohnmayer and I were eating lunch with Greg Canessa, head of the XBox marketing team, I asked him if we should we mortgage our houses to make XB360 games for Live Arcade download. Of course, his answer was yes, but you have to remember that his job for the last two years was selling the XB360 concept up and down the food chain. Turns out, he is probably right.

As promised, here are the five reasons (plus a bonus) this is important for Indie games developers.

1. Consoles are opening up to Indies. This is huge. Finally, indie game developers get access to millions of hard core game players, great input devices, and dedicated machines! On the flip side, the competition for this channel will go up in a hurry. All of the major game publishers are starting up games for XBLA. A year from now, there will be well over 100 games vying for player’s attention. Future blog articles here on MBG will address how indies can stand out in this market.

2. XBLA success puts pressure on Sony to add a download channel. Rumors are flying that Sony is already showing signs of cracking. In addition, Nintendo has stated they are looking for smaller, more innovative games for the DS and Revolution. Having more channels will increase your chances of getting a game published. Even though there will be “gate keepers” you will have to get around to bring your product into these channels, there will be a lot of possibilities.

3. Experimental Business Models. XBLA back end allows for add-ons, downloadable content, and access to a a huge community of players. This allows you to consider interesting, innovative business models like giving the game away free and charging for upgrades or game objects. Much more to explore here in the future.

4. Console development technologies available at Indie price. Again, I’m not here to simply plug GarageGames’ products, but our Torque Shader Engine 360 is such a compelling value that I simply have to mention it. TSE360 allows you to develop your product for the XBox360 without even having a development kit. Over half of our development for MBU was done on the PC, and we could even test PC vs. XB360 in multi-player. I’ll cover a step by step approach of getting your project onto XB360 in the future.

5. Proves that small companies can have a hit. We absolutely love Geometry Wars and thought it would be the break away hit since we first saw it at IndieGamesCon, but it was developed by Bizzare Creations, the non-indie developer of Project Gotham Racing. GarageGames is much smaller than BC, but we still have a lot of ex-industry talent. I would like to say that anybody can make a successful title for this channel, but it will take a lot of dedication, talent, and perseverance. It probably won’t be your first game.

6. Downloadable Console Games Can Make Money. Why this is important for Indie game developers is because it finally proves there is a market for smaller titles that are not “match three bubble poppers.” MBU is selling!! Without breaking any NDA’s we can tell you that MBU is selling faster than any product that I have created in my career. By just keeping one of the lowest “high scores” on a level that is not included in the demo, we can tell that at least 20,000 MBU’s have sold in less than four days. Accoring to this article on Joystiq, Geometry Wars was at 45,000 units a week or so ago, and was the number one title in the channel, “our Halo” according to Greg Canessa. At 800 Gamer Points for MBU vs. 400 for GW, MBU should become the highest grossing title in the channel within the next week or so. Wow, a Halo beater?

-Jeff Tunnell, Game Makermakeitbigingamesgaragegames

Aside

Why Shipping Marble Blast Ultra On XBox 360 Is Important For Indie Game Developers, Part 1

MBU Marble

I have been working on a post about basic things that you need to do to get started in the Indie Games business as part of my prerelease series before officially announcing the MBG blog, but changed my mind and decided to write about Marble Blast Ultra. I don’t plan on having the MBG blog just be a mouthpiece for GarageGames press and hype, but MBU360 is a groundbreaking product for a bunch of reasons.

When we first started GarageGames in 1999 one fear in the back of my mind was that indies would never have a shot at getting their products on consoles. All of the major boxes were tightly controlled by the manufacturers (Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo), requiring pre development approval, expensive development kits, upfront purchase of all inventory at inflated costs due to proprietary media, and many other huge barriers to entry. The only other way to get on consoles was to sell your soul to publishers that instist on owning all intellectual property, maintain tight creative control of the product, and many other bad things that we will go over in future blog articles.

As PC sales continued to become less relevant and went down year to year, my fears continued to rise. I had visions of PC’s becoming Web access devices where less and less people considered playing games. As an aside, I actually worry about “everything” since that is my nature and my job, but it turns out that the downloadable games market on the PC that was the main vision behind GarageGames is alive, well, and growing.

Even if the downloadable market on the PC had not blossomed two years ago, we had a meeting with Ross Erickson from Microsoft and David Nixon from Oberon that was the first step to fixing the problem of getting indies on consoles. David and Ross were working on the XBox Live Arcade download system for the original XBox which needed content, and they loved our game Marble Blast, as well as our published games Think Tanks and Orbz. In addition to liking our “next generation casual” games, they knew we owned our intellectual property as well as out technology and could bring it over to the XBox.

Immediately, I felt like this would be the key to getting indies onto consoles, so my earlier fears were about being locked out of the market were subsiding. All we had to do now was deliver three games, but again, the whole idea of GarageGames worked. GarageGames handled most of the technology port as well as Marble Blast, Bravetree (indie developer GG acquired in 2005) ported Think Tanks, and 21-6 Productions ported Orbz.

While XBLA for the original XBox was kind of a “dry run”, we all learned a lot from the experience, especially Microsoft. When they approached us to have an updated Marble Blast be a part of the launch portfolio for Xbox360, we could not say yes fast enough. We were amazed at the depth of thought they put into the design of Live Arcade 360, and were even more blown away when we actually got to work on it. The most important thing to note here is that GarageGames and several small indie game developers were give Alpha hardware and an equal shot at bringing games to market on next generation hardware at launch. Think about that for a second. Instead of giving Electronic Arts more of the scarce development kits, Fed-Ex brought one of the hand built Alpha kits right to our door! Even though we had signed the contract, we could not believe it.

It gets even better, but this post is running way too long. Tune in for Part II, where I actually explain why shipping MBU is important, and give some advice on how to get your product into the Live Arcade 360 downloadable channel.

-Jeff Tunnell, Game Makermakeitbigingamesgaragegames